Logano’s underdog gamble could rewrite NASCAR history – and the odds are shocking!
But here's where it gets controversial: the very moves that rescued his season may have been engineered by a rival driver, and the betting markets are buzzing.
Yes, we’re deep into an odd‑numbered season – a fact that has been haunting the playoffs for almost ten months now. If you’ve been following the drama, you’ll feel a déjà vu vibe; it’s like watching the same script on repeat.
Two weeks ago at Kansas Speedway, Denny Hamlin made a split‑second decision to push his teammate Bubba Wallace up the track on the final lap. That maneuver handed Wallace a ticket to the round of eight, while Joey Logano was left out of the cut. (Read more: https://beyondtheflag.com/denny-hamlin-handed-gift-longtime-rival-mean-chase-elliott-01k69gqjw5vs)
Fast forward to the Charlotte Roval, where Hamlin’s pass on Ross Chastain in the closing seconds sparked a chaotic melee that artificially widened the gap between Logano and Chastain, ultimately keeping Logano out of the round of eight. (Details: https://beyondtheflag.com/denny-hamlin-inadvertently-give-huge-gift-same-driver-two-races-row-01k6vdyefe98)
Rumor mills have been buzzing about whether Logano has been secretly crowned "Team Penske Employee of the Month" for his heroic rescue of the No. 22 car, but no official source has confirmed it yet.
What we do know is that, against all statistical odds, Logano remains very much in contention to become only the fifth driver ever to capture a fourth Cup Series championship.
To understand why this feels like déjà vu, recall that Logano barely squeaked into the 2024 playoffs after a five‑overtime victory over Zane Smith at Nashville – a win that rescued him from a points position that would have otherwise left him out.
He was then eliminated at the Charlotte Roval, only to be resurrected when Hendrick Motorsports’ Alex Bowman’s No. 48 car failed post‑race inspection, costing Bowman valuable points and opening a door for Logano. (See the fallout: https://beyondtheflag.com/denny-hamlin-handed-gift-longtime-rival-mean-chase-elliott-01k69gqjw5vs)
Logano seized that second chance, winning at Las Vegas and securing a spot in the Championship 4, effectively earning a two‑week “bye” before the final showdown.
He used that downtime the same way he did in 2018 and 2022 – turning a pause into a dominant performance that carried him to the title at Phoenix Raceway, his second championship in three years.
Statistically, Logano is a perfect six‑for‑six in even‑numbered years, yet he’s never made the Championship 4 in an odd‑numbered season. The question now is: can he finally break that curse?
That’s why it’s eye‑catching – FanDuel Sportsbook currently lists Logano as the longest‑shot for the 2025 title at +1000, meaning a $100 wager would return $1,100 if he pulls off the miracle. (Odds: https://bit.ly/BeyondtheFlag-Web-FanDuel)
The rest of the field is priced between +430 and +900. Ryan Blaney leads the pack at +430, followed closely by Denny Hamlin (+450), Kyle Larson (+470), Christopher Bell (+500), and Hendrick teammates Chase Elliott and William Byron both at +600. (Blaney favorite story: https://beyondtheflag.com/chase-elliott-not-nascar-championship-favorite-despite-kansas-win-01k6m39281c0)
A +430 line translates to roughly a 1‑in‑5.3 chance, though the house edge makes it slightly lower.
Logano sits 24 points shy of the cutoff that would normally guarantee a Championship 4 berth, placing him eighth out of eight in the playoff standings. (Points deficit: https://beyondtheflag.com/nascar-playoffs-charlotte-roval-full-race-results-standings-01k6pqd028s3)
But if the past eight seasons have taught us anything, it’s that Logano isn’t playing a points game – he’s playing a win‑or‑lose game. He’s proven he can deliver at tracks like Las Vegas, Talladega, Martinsville, and Phoenix, especially when the pressure is at its highest.
All it takes is one lucky break – a timely caution, a strategic pit stop, or a bit of traffic – and Logano and the No. 22 team have a knack for turning it into a victory.
Don’t be surprised if that +1000 line starts to shrink as the weekend progresses.
You can see the complete set of championship odds here: https://bit.ly/BeyondtheFlag-Web-FanDuel (odds are fluid).
The round‑of‑eight opener will be broadcast live on USA Network from Las Vegas Motor Speedway on Sunday, October 12, kicking off at 5:30 p.m. ET.
If you don’t have a cable subscription, you can start a free trial of FuboTV (http://www.fubo.tv/welcome?irad=343747&irmp=1412332&subId1=FS-2024streaming) to catch every lap of the South Point 400.
So, do you think Logano can finally shatter his odd‑year jinx and claim that elusive fourth championship, or is the +1000 line a sign that the odds are stacked against him? Let us know in the comments!
And remember, the next big upset could be just a lap away.
